Confounded: Causal Inference and the Requirement of Independence

One of the most important requirements for accurate causal inference is that there be no confounds; the cause being evaluated must occur independently of all other causes. When this requirement is not met, causal inferences are likely to be incorrect. The current study asks participants to judge how informative various situations are with respect to drawing causal inferences. Contrary to normative principles, participants appear to believe that many confounded situations are just as informative as unconfounded situations.